IMF says India in midst of significant economic slowdown, calls for urgent policy actions

国际货币基金组织说，印度经济显著放缓，需采取紧急政策

NEW DELHI: India is in the midst of a significant economic slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, asking for urgent steps to reverse slowdown while continuing with credible fiscal consolidation.

国际货币基金组织表示，印度正处于严重的经济放缓中，需要采取紧急措施来扭转经济放缓趋势，同时继续实施可靠的财政整顿。

The fund released Article IV consultation report on India in Washington on Monday.

周一，国际货币基金组织在华盛顿发布了第四篇关于印度的报告。

"India is now in the midst of a significant economic slowdown…. Addressing the current downturn and returning India to a high growth path requires urgent policy actions,” Ranil Salgado of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department told reporters.

他说：“印度目前正处于严重的经济衰退之中。应对当前的经济衰退，使印度重新走上高速增长的道路，需要采取紧急的政策。”

India’s economic growth slumped to a six-year low of 4.5% in July-September quarter and many experts now expect full FY20 growth at below 5%.

印度经济增速在7 - 9月跌至4.5%的6年低点，许多专家预计2020财年的增速将低于5%。

The report presented two scenarios with the second one pushing for significant reforms around three pillars to boost growth-—Firstly, ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets should be complemented by a decisive strengthening of PSB governance and regulation and oversight of NBFCs, it said. Secondly, a medium-term fiscal consolidation path should be anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee’s recommendation to reduce general go nment debt toward 60% of GDP and thirdly, unveil labour, land and productivity reforms. The other scenario pointed ANIRBAN BORA that the country could grow by 7.3% in medium term riding on the back of reforms already taken such as Goods and Services Tax. It backed continuation of monetary easing, but cautioned against fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

报告提出了两种情况，第二种情况是推动围绕三大支柱进行重大改革，以提振增长。报告称，首先，正在进行的银行资产负债表清理工作，应辅以坚决加强国有银行（PSB）治理和监管，并加强对非银机构（NBFC）的监督。其次，中期财政整固路径应以财政责任和预算管理审查委员会建议为基础，该委员会建议将政府债务削减至GDP的60%。第三，公布劳动力、土地和生产率改革。另一种情况是，在商品和服务税等改革措施的推动下，阿尼班博拉的经济在中期内可能增长7.3%。它支持继续实施货币宽松政策，但警告不要通过财政刺激来提振增长。

Growth is projected at 6.1% in 2019-20, IMF said, while adding that risks are to the downside. IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath had last week said that India’s growth forecast is likely to revised down “significantly” in the upcoming January review. 

IMF表示，印度2019年至2020年的经济增长率预计为6.1%，并补充说，下行风险仍在加大。国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Gita Gopinath上周表示，在即将到来的1月份评估中，印度的增长猜测可能会“大幅”下调。

Credible medium-term fiscal consolidation path driven by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax base-enhancing measures are needed to reduce debt, free up financial resources for private investment, and reduce the interest bill, the IMF said. It cautioned that the go nment has limited space to boost spending to support growth, especially given high debt levels and interest payments. 

IMF表示，印度需要在补贴支出合理化和税基增强措施的推动下，采取可信的中期财政巩固措施，以减少债务、为私人投资释放财政资源，并减少利息支出。报告警告称，政府增加支出以支持经济增长的空间有限，特殊是考虑到债务水平和利息支付水平较高。

India's rapid economic expansion in recent years has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, in the first half of 2019, a combination of factors led to subdued economic growth in India. 

印度近年来的快速经济阔张使数百万人摆脱了贫困。然而，在2019年上半年，一系列因素导致印度经济增长出现放缓。

The IMF in October slashed its forecast for 2019 by nearly a full point to 6.1%, while cutting the outlook for 2020 to 7.0%. 

国际货币基金组织10月份将2019年的经济增长猜测下调了近一个百分点，至6.1%，同时将2020年的猜测下调至7.0%。

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译文来源：三泰虎         译者：Joyceliu

Ankita Gupta

useful article

很有用的文章。

MANI Arumugam

IMF 印度经济

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